Our President has recently announced he would like to hold an open forum on our institution's current financial situation. Earlier in September, an email went out to the entire community assuring the campus that we are in a good financial state. Word has trickled out that our President has opened what is normally a closed meeting to the campus at large is that email was entirely too optimistic, and that things have changed since then.
I think the normal fiscal clamps such as hiring freezes and no merit pay this year are to be expected. What I worry about is downsizing.
I emailed back and forth with some colleagues about what these impending financial times could have on higher education. We speculated that institutions such as mine, a private, top-tier liberal arts school will feel the impact the most, with smaller classes of freshmen, and potentially lower rates of retention. I think large state schools will see a huge rise in freshmen classes, simply because they can't afford the private school tuition, but want a comparable, affordable education. If a student is aiming for Boston College, they might settle for somewhere like UMass-Amherst. I think loan packages, as we have already seen, are going to be key in comparing matriculated class sizes between privates and publics.
I think for-profits are also going to be hit really hard as well. Where I do see for-profits gaining ground is through online education. Online education makes sense for the student that can't afford to go away to school right now, and allows them to work full-time at the same time if they have to. It's an attractive option for cash-strapped families.
My colleague working for a large state school also mentioned that community colleges are going to see huge influxes of students. Get the work done at one school, transfer, and get the degree with the better school name on it. She suspects that community colleges are going to eat a lot of the population with large financial aid packages headed to state schools. Especially with our new administration, there will be a strong push from Washington for affordable higher education opportunities, starting with our community colleges.
While state schools might lose some of their population from those migrating to community colleges, I countered that their absence would be made up by those students who can't afford private. This creates a volatile possibility of higher expectations and demands of our state school systems, as they flock to the affordable school, and yet their isn't the fiscal support to meet their demands. Capitol projects everywhere are getting slashed, and often these are for much needed campus resources, including new student housing.
She also brought up that schools such as mine, with a high alumni support base, may see significant drops in donors and their amounts. People just won't have the money to give back to their college and universities like they used to.
These are definitely uncertain times in higher education.